SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, consultant, speaker,
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

The Australian economy’s recovery from the corona-recession, and implications for interest rates


Economic Policies, The Australian Economy | 8th April 2021

Saul talks to the Eureka Report’s Alan Kohler about Australia’s better-than-expected recovery from the “corona-recession”, which in turn reflects Australia’s relatively good performance in keeping the virus ‘at bay’ and the larger-than-average volume of fiscal support provided by the Australian Government. He explains how the closure of Australia’s borders to migrants (as well as tourists and students) has significantly reduced the amount of ‘competition’ which Australians who’ve lost their jobs face in seeking new ones: which in turn helps explain why the unemployment rate has fallen faster than expected. He notes that if this continues (as it well might given the slowness in rolling out vaccines in Australia) then the unemployment rate could get to the levels stipulated by the Reserve Bank as necessary for inflation to return sustainably to its 2-3% target range sooner than the “2024 at the earliest” indicated by the RBA in its ‘guidance’ about when it might start raising interest rates. The RBA is one of only two ‘advanced economy’ central banks to have nominated a point on the calendar for when it expects to start raising rates. It might have some explaining to do if it ends up having to move ahead of that date.

SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT

Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness



Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.



“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


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TESTIMONIALS

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Australian Minister for Housing, the Hon. Clare O'Neill MP on ABC Q&A, September 2024

“We are lucky as a State to have an economist of your calibre willing to readily make yourself available to give us a clea r perception of where we are at and the direction we need to go for a better future”
Diplomatic Representative, August 2024

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

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WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


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‘Super for housing’ is a souped-up first home owners grants scheme – and it won’t help any more than first home owners grants have
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‘Super for Housing’ – a Thoroughly Bad Idea
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A ‘path back to surplus’ for the Tasmanian Budget? Not really
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Tasmania’s 2024-25 State Budget – an Assessment
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Tasmania’s State Finances – presentation to the Local Government Association of Tasmania’s Annual Conference
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Below is a list of links I’ve found useful under the following broad topics

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